Weather Outlook for the Next Three Months in France: Initial Trends

  • Posted on 31/03/2024

Forecast of a Warmer-than-Usual Period

Recent projections from Météo France suggest that France could experience temperatures above the usual average over the next three months. This scenario, warmer than usual, is also expected for the rest of Europe. Météo France estimates a 50% chance of these trends occurring, while a lack of a clear trend has only a 33% probability.

Other sources such as La Chaîne Météo confirm these forecasts by indicating that temperatures should remain above seasonal norms, with a difference estimated between +0.5 and +1 degree Celsius for the April-May-June period. European weather models, including Copernicus, support these forecasts by identifying similar temperature anomalies.

However, it's important to note that these general trends do not predict daily or weekly weather variations. In other words, although the entire period may be warmer than usual, cooler periods could still occur transiently, depending on specific weather conditions.

Precipitation: Persistent Uncertainty

Unlike temperatures, forecasts regarding precipitation for the next three months remain uncertain. Météo France emphasizes that no scenario is favored for France or most European regions.

Nevertheless, some estimates suggest that the months of May and June could be drier than April. This hypothesis, however, will require confirmation in the coming weeks.

In summary, while forecasts indicate above-average temperatures for the coming months in France, uncertainty remains regarding precipitation levels. Regular updates will be necessary to refine these forecasts and better anticipate expected weather conditions.